Showing posts with label rail. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rail. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

News Roundup: Taiwan High Speed Rail in Trouble

Energy

Months after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, the debate surrounding nuclear energy in Taiwan continues unabated. In June, several Taiwanese environmental groups held protests over Taiwan's nuclear energy policy and the construction of Taiwan's beleaguered fourth nuclear plant. Former Vice President Annette Lu criticized President Ma for refusing to shift policy towards a nuclear-free Taiwan. After meeting with Lu and several other academics, Premier Wu Den-Yih expressed his desire to gradually replace Taiwan's nuclear power with green energy. However, Wu's statement included the caveat that phasing out nuclear power would not take precedence over Taiwan's economic growth, electricity pricing stability, or CO2 emissions goals.

Anti-nuclear protests continue to drive Taiwan's energy debate

Recently returned from a visit to Germany, DPP 2012 presidential candidate Tsai Ying-wen reaffirmed her support for her proposed "non-nuclear homeland policy." Tsai expressed a desire to learn from Germany's efforts to eliminate its nuclear power generation by 2022. In regards to Tsai's policy, The China Post called for better transparency and information on the costs, both economic and environmental, associated with a non-nuclear Taiwan. At Taiwan Green Study, fellow Fulbright Scholar John D'Angola asks where will the alternative energy sources to replace nuclear come from?

On July 4th, Bureau of Energy Director General Jerry Ou announced that Taiwan's green energy economic output will exceed NT $1 trillion by 2015. This represents a tripling of Taiwan's NT $380 billion output in 2010. Taiwan's green energy sector is expected to draw NT $200 billion in private investment and create 110,000 jobs over the next four years. The Bureau of Energy's report also noted that Taiwan produced 3 GW of solar pv in 2010, surpassing Japan and reaching second place world-wide. Taiwan also claimed the world's top-spot in LED component production and is fifth overall in the installation of solar water heaters.

Environment

The Taipei Metro was recently cited as an example of urban rail transit's ability to reduce air pollution. Previously, researchers were unconvinced that mass transit systems improved air quality, as gains made by reduced automobile use could potentially be erased by larger numbers of overall commuters. A recent study conducted by researchers at UC Merced found that Taipei's MRT led to significant reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide levels.

At a recent meeting in Germany, Kaohsiung signed onto to ICLEI's Local Action for Biodiversity (LAB). LAB seeks to improve local ecosystems and support sustainable development and its membership includes several international metropolises such as Amsterdam, Barcelona, and Mexico City.

Taiwan's publishers are increasingly turning to "stone paper" to improve environmental standards. Unlike conventional paper, stone paper is composed of roughly 2/3 powdered stone with the remaining material coming from recycled plastics. Stone paper requires less intensive chemical treatment, halving its energy requirements during production and reducing costs. In addition to saving trees, the paper is extremely durable, water-proof, and decomposes naturally.

Environmental activists in Taipei protested the EPA's decision to approve construction of a Taipei-Danshui freeway along the Danshui river's north bank. The protestors oppose the project on the grounds that it will destroy important wetlands along the river bank and is less effective than other solutions to traffic congestion (such as increasing the number of MRT trains).

Carbon

In June, the EPA announced that it will provide Taiwan's 22 local governments with guidelines to conduct city and county carbon inventories. Several of Taiwan's cities have already initiated CO2 reduction measures and the EPA believes city-scale CO2 policies can simultaneously drive local action and international cooperation. Taiwan Today also reported on amendments to Taiwan's Commodity and Vehicle License taxes that will incentivize low-carbon transportation.

Food

Taiwan has emerged as a major culprit in the international crusade against shark fin soup. An animal welfare group reported that Taiwan kills 3.86 million sharks annually for the dish, mainly consumed at wedding banquets. Conducted between 2000-2008, a Pew Environment Group study found that Taiwan was responsible for 5.8% of the world's shark catch, placing fourth internationally.

Taiwan remains amongst the world's largest consumers of shark fin

In the wake of Taiwan's DEHP scandal where industrial-use plasticizer was found in several popular beverages, Premier Wu Den-Yih spoke on rebuilding Taiwan's image at the annual Food Taipei fair. Taiwan seeks to refocus its reputation as a producer of high-quality foods while it continues to investigate those responsible for the plasticizer debacle.

Transportation

Surprising and unsettling Taiwan's rail commuters, it was recently revealed that the Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR) is sinking. In June, Public Construction Commission Minister Lee Hong-yuan announced that unless action was taken to correct the situation, THSR would be unusable within 10 years. The problem lies with the loss of groundwater along the THSR's elevated tracks. The groundwater is being siphoned by mostly illegal wells and the government has thusfar failed to strictly enforce the laws preventing groundwater loss. Lee Hong-yuan stated the problem can be solved by shutting down the wells. More controversially, Lee has called for limiting development alongside the THSR. The THSR runs through many agricultural areas and development along its axis was expected to boost local economic growth. However, when faced with the total collapse of Taiwan's landmark infrastructure project, land developers may have to accept reduced profits.

Taiwan's High Speed Rail is confronted with damaging issues

In an article detailing China's efforts to integrate Taiwan via cross-strait transportation connectivity, the Asia Sentinel highlights the central role of Taichung. China has invested heavily in transportation infrastructure in the Pingtan islands off Fujian province and is seeking to create a streamlined Pingtan-Taichung transportation network. China has unveiled a fleet of high-speed passenger ferries which would allow Taichung residents to reach the Mainland in a crisp two and a half hours. However, the enhanced connectivity is contingent upon Taiwanese government approval and little action is expected prior to the 2012 presidential elections.

Water

The Guardian has an interesting profile of Taiwan's water woes. The piece contrasts the high rates of water recycling employed by industrial leaders such as Taiwan Semiconductor with the low-tech, wasteful water use of Taiwan's agricultural sector. This imbalance is more striking due the disparity in economic production: Taiwan's farms consume over 70% of the nation's water supply while contributing only 1.6% to annual GDP.

In Tainan, the local government has proposed and received support for the construction of a large man-made lake. With an estimated cost of NT $1.2 billion, the lake will serve as a crucial reservoir while simultaneously improving the area's ecology and urban renewal efforts.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

News Round-up

After a holiday break, Taiwan Sustainable Cities is back with a news round-up to start the new year.

Government

On the heels of Taiwan's new municipalities commencing operation, the government announced the planned creation of the Ministry of Environment and Resources. The new ministry goes against a trend of government consolidation, as Taiwan's cabinet-level agencies will shrink from 37 to 27 by 2012. Uniting natural resource management and environmental conservation under the umbrella of one agency, the Ministry of Environment and Resources' responsibilities (amongst others) will include climate change planning and pollution control.

Energy

Accompanying Taiwan's strong industrial productivity, electricity demand and energy use is climbing. To meet its future energy needs, Taiwan's government announced a NT $25 billion (US $848 million) investment in clean energy over the next five years. The government aims to attract an additional NT $200 billion (US $6.7 billion) in private investment into the clean energy sector. Solar energy demand is increasing in southern Taiwan. Topcell Solar is planning to build a US $600 million solar plant in the Tainan Technology Industrial Park. The new solar facility will provide additional clean energy to alleviate energy demand on Topcell's existing solar energy plant in Tainan. Although renewables will comprise an increasing share of Taiwan's energy mix, three nuclear power plants still provide 20% of the island's electricity. Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs announced another delay in the opening of Taiwan's controversial fourth nuclear plant. Due to safety concerns, the plant is now scheduled for a late 2012 opening.

Green Buildings

Taiwan's first zero-carbon building opened this past week at National Cheng Kung University in Tainan. The Y.S. Sun Green Building Research Center, known as the "Magic School," utilizes several innovative renewable energy, energy efficiency, and natural ventilation technologies to achieve its energy savings. Taiwan's tallest building is also going green. The Taipei 101 is investing US $1.8 million in its efforts to achieve a LEED Gold rating. The Taipei landmark's energy efficiency retrofits will save US $20 million per year.

Taipei 101 goes for the Gold
Transportation

Whilst Taiwan's emissions trading legislation remains under discussion, the EPA is moving forward with emissions reduction initiatives in the transportation sector. Six automobile manufacturers have agreed with the EPA to voluntarily reduce CO2 emissions by 10-15% over the next five years. Amidst calls for greater government support of electric vehicles, Taiwan's EV market will benefit from electric battery exchange stations. In the next three years, City Power Co. will roll-out 3,000 battery exchange stations for electric scooters. Battery exchange will mitigate the long waiting time for electric scooters to recharge, instead allowing participants to simply swap batteries at gas stations, parking lots and other locations. Battery exchanges also relate to the government's effort to create a unified transportation card system. The government plans to invest NT $500 million to achieve a nationally integrated "e-card" system by 2013, allowing Taiwan's transport passengers to use just one card on busses, MRT, and rail.

Taiwan HSR hits new highs

Taiwan's high-speed rail reached new record highs in ridership this past year, averaging over 100,000 riders a day in 2010 for the first time since its opening. Taiwan's conventional rail also experienced its first expansion in 30 years. The new line will connect Tainan's HSR station to the downtown area, supplementing an existing shuttle bus route and reducing travel time.

Food

The EPA made international headlines with its plan for more sustainable pig farming practices. Taiwan's 6 million pigs are a drain on fresh water resources and a source of air and water pollution. The EPA has recommended improved pig waste recycling practices to generate bioenergy and compost while reducing pollution. Taiwan has also committed itself to food sustainability overseas. The Taiwanese government donated US $641 million to Central American nations in an effort to spread Taiwan's knowledge of aquaculture and replenishment of fish stocks.

And Lastly...


Taiwan Sustainable Cities has been named one of the winners in the
2010 Taiwan Best Blog Awards! Thank you to all readers and enjoy a wonderful 2011.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Holiday Update

A belated Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I've been busy at work on a long two-part post, but in the meantime, here is a Taiwan Sustainable Cities holiday news roundup.

Energy

The Taiwanese government has had a busy November. On the heels of a decision to reduce solar energy prices, the government announced a NT $8 billion (US $260 million) investment to establish Penghu as a renewable energy testing ground. By harnessing the island's abundant wind resources, Penghu will receive over 50% of its energy supply from renewable sources and swap half of its motorbikes for electric scooters by 2015. This past week, Taiwan Vice President Vincent Siew identified increasing Taiwan's natural gas consumption to 16 million tons per year by 2025 as another means to cut emissions. The 45% projected increase in LNG from this year's estimated 11 million tons will reduce Taiwan's dependence on oil for power generation.
Wind Turbines on Penghu Island
Green Space

While protests continue over protecting Taiwan's existing green space, Taipei County announced the opening of a 17 hectare park on the former site of an industrial waste dump. The opening of the riverside park is a component of a land reclamation project along the Tahan River.

Green Buildings

In early November, Stefan Dorin's award winning design for Taichung City's Taiwan Tower architecture competition garnered international attention due to its futuristic concepts. Not to be outdone, the Port of Kaohsiung has its own ambitious green building project. Sun and Associates unveiled a wave-shaped cruise ship terminal proposal for Kaohsiung's port. Complete with a sophisticated solar roof, the development will be multi-use and include an adjacent park.

Public Transportation

Taipei City inaugurated its Luzhou MRT line earlier this month. The new line is projected to push the Taipei MRT's annual ridership over 500 million passenger boardings a year, fulfilling the requirement to become a member of the exclusive Community of Metros (CoMET). Taipei commuters increasing MRT ridership has led to a decrease in the need for taxi services. In response, The Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) is encouraging taxi customers to carpool by offering cheaper rates as a means to improve the smaller fleet's efficiency. In order to alleviate inter-city traffic congestion, discussions regarding an upgrade to Northeastern Taiwan's rail system are ongoing. Improved rail links between Yilan and Taipei would reduce pressure on crowded Northeastern highway tunnels, which the MOTC fears are nearing their capacity.

Private Transportation

In the private transportation sector, Ford Lio Ho (a subsidiary of Ford Motor Co. accounting for over 10% of Taiwan's auto market) announced the sale of its 2 millionth car. The company has been promoting the Ford EcoBoost engine that has recently been introduced to the Taiwanese market. The EcoBoost engine raises fuel economy by 20% and cuts CO2 emissions by 15%. Ford Lio Ho has stated that 80% of its cars will utilize the EcoBoost by 2013. In addition to targeting Taiwan's domestic auto market, international automakers may increasingly utilize Taiwan as crucial middle-man to enter China. BusinessWire reports on the opportunities for international firms to partner with Taiwan to take advantage of China's burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) market. As a result of increased cross-strait trade fostered by the June 2010 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (EFCA), Taiwan offers unparalleled proximity and access to China's EV market while providing first-rate intellectual property protection and manufacturing expertise.
Taiwan may play an increasingly important role in China's EV Market

Urban Renewal

On Thanksgiving Day, the Taiwan government announced that a four-year plan directed at urban renewal will begin in January 2011. Targeting houses over 20 years old, the plan will encourage the renovation and reconstruction of over 4.5 million homes . The government will spend over NT $18 billion (US $592 million) to reconstruct 20,000 homes over 30 years in age and provide tax incentives for renovating houses 20-29 years in age. The plan calls for houses to achieve higher standards of earthquake safety and increase disabled-access, water conservation, energy efficiency, and low-carbon building techniques.

Have a safe and restful Thanksgiving holiday and check back soon for a new post.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Bus Rapid Transit in Taichung

During my conversation last week with Mr. Huang (黃崇典), Taichung City Director of Urban Development, a key topic of discussion was Taichung’s transportation system. Taichung has the highest per capita car ownership out of Taiwan’s large cities and insufficient public transportation infrastructure. Construction of Taichung's mass rapid transit (MRT) system has been a contentious issue due to high costs (the first line alone will cost over $51 billion TWD or $1.67 billion USD). Director Huang confirmed that construction on Taichung’s first MRT line has begun and operations are scheduled to commence in four years. The second line to be built will most likely be the blue line, running along Taichung Harbor Road (台中港路) into the city center. However, construction on the blue line hasn’t broken ground, and four other lines are still in their planning stages. It appears that final completion of Taichung’s metro system is still years, if not decades away.

As an alternative method of traffic alleviation and carbon emission reduction, Director Huang mentioned the development of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Taichung, citing the example of Curitiba, Brazil, the model of BRT systems internationally. In this post, I want to examine the concept of BRT, explore how a few cities have adapted its principles to fit their specific transportation needs, and evaluate its future potential in Taichung.

What is Bus Rapid Transit?

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a high-quality bus public transportation system that emulates best practices from various public transportation options. Consequently, BRT systems aim to achieve levels of speed and efficiency close to light rail or subways, at a much lower cost. Some BRT practices include:

  • exclusive busways
  • alternative fuel vehicles (biofuels, natural gas)
  • rapid boarding and exiting
  • free transfers
  • enclosed stations with prepayment
  • realtime tracking of arrivals
  • bi-articulated busses
  • improved marketing

BRT's major advantages are its low upfront cost and flexibility. Cost is a major factor in determining a city's options in improving its public transportation system. Underground MRT systems cost between $45 million and $320 million USD per kilometer. Taipei's MRT system is generally hailed as a success, but its costs will exceed $30 billion USD upon completion of its second phase. A cheaper option is light rail transit (LRT), featuring above ground electric rail cars and ranging in price from $30 million to $100 million USD per kilometer. BRT systems are cheaper than both LRT and MRT options, with costs varying between $500,000 to $15 million USD per kilometer. Although many city-specific factors determine the precise cost of each option, BRT's substantially lower investment price offers cities lacking upfront capital an alternative to inaction. Another appealing quality of BRT systems is their flexibility. BRT can comprise a city's entire public transportation network, supplement/feed-into existing metro systems, or be converted to rail transportation at a later date.

BRT also has its drawbacks. In many cities, there exists a strong, negative public perception about public transportation in general, with bus transportation ranking at the bottom of the public transport hierarchy. Critics have been skeptical of high-quality BRT systems applicability in developed nations, regarding them as "a third world solution for a third world problem." In his excellent overview of BRT system development, Lloyd Wright observes:

The negative stigma of existing bus systems is a formidable barrier to overcome in selling the BRT concept. In most parts of the world, the words “public transport” have the same connotation as some other public goods such as “public restrooms”. Thus, public transport is something that is not clean and not particularly nice, and should only be endured when truly necessary.

In addition to the stigma associated with bus travel, there are legitimate concerns regarding overcrowding, pollution, and labor productivity.

Curitiba

Any reference to BRT development will likely cite the Brazilian city of Curitiba*, the birthplace of modern BRT systems. Faced with a lack of funding for a metro system, rapidly expanding urban area and increasing reliance on private cars for transportation, Curitiba implemented the world’s first BRT system in 1974. Under the guidance of Curitiba architect and Mayor Jaime Lerner, the city’s BRT network has expanded into a comprehensive and popular form of urban transportation. Curitiba utilizes what many now consider to be staples of a high-level BRT system including: exclusive busways, prepayment, free transfers, alternative fuel vehicles, same-level boarding, and quality stations.

In the article, Curitiba’s Bus System is a Model for Rapid Transit, the authors summarize the successes of the system:

“The popularity of Curitiba’s BRT has effected a modal shift from automobile travel to bus travel. Based on 1991 traveler survey results, it was estimated that the introduction of the BRT had caused a reduction of about 27 million auto trips per year, saving about 27 million liters of fuel annually. In particular, 28 percent of BRT riders previously traveled by car. Compared to eight other Brazilian cities of its size, Curitiba uses about 30 percent less fuel per capita, resulting in one of the lowest rates of ambient air pollution in the country. Today about 1,100 buses make 12,500 trips every day, serving more than 1.3 million passengers—50 times the number from 20 years ago. Eighty percent of travelers use the express or direct bus services. Best of all, Curitibanos spend only about 10 percent of their income on travel— much below the national average.”

Curitiba's BRT system continues to modernize and develop. Its latest green line added 9.4 km of BRT expansion while integrating green space and bicycle paths along the route's axis. Despite the successes of Curitiba's BRT system, discussions are still ongoing regarding the construction of an MRT system. Issues such as rapid urban development at Curitiba's periphery, increasing car ownership, and image for the 2014 influx of World Cup tourists still color the debate.

*For additional background information on Curitiba's urban development history and future challenges, see this May 2007 New York Times Magazine piece

Taipei

Taipei is the home of Taiwan's first BRT system, beginning operation in 1996 and running as a supplement to its MRT system. In contrast to the Taipei MRT's astronomical price tag (one of the most expensive in the world), the 57 kilometers of Taipei BRT cost a modest $500,000 USD per kilometer. Taipei utilizes exclusive bus lanes (although not segregated physically from traffic), digital payment cards, and feeder service to MRT stations. Taipei's BRT has been a measured success, and bus lanes have increased average speeds for both busses and private vehicles.

Taipei has also begun to integrate alternative fuel busses into its fleet. Taipei City has offered subsidies to its bus companies to encourage purchasing hybrid busses, and 75 electric-diesel hybrids are now in operation.

Xiamen

Xiamen, the TSCCI project’s mainland sister eco-city to Taichung, has implemented one of China’s most successful and comprehensive BRT systems. Xiamen had long looked to alleviate traffic congestion through improved public transportation. By its own calculation, every kilometer of subway line would cost the city 500-600 million yuan, ($73-88 million USD) and a light rail would cost 150-200 million yuan ($22-29 million USD). Instead Xiamen embraced a cheaper option and BRT has become the city's main mode of public transportation. Xiamen’s BRT system began operation in September 2008. With its ease of use and ticket prices below 1 yuan, rides have increased to 22 million/day. In a January 2009 WRI Center for Sustainable Transport report, Xiamen's BRT system received the second highest evaluation out of thirteen Asian cities (Taipei tied for 10th place). The efficiency of Xiamen's BRT system has played a major role in Xiamen's status as China's top city in transportation convenience for six years running.

The Xiamen BRT relies on five lines and a supplementary series of shuttle busses that connect to BRT stations. The BRT links downtown Xiamen Island to the outlying areas of the city, achieving the same effect as an MRT in developing adjacent communities through greater public transportation access at a fraction of the cost. Xiamen’s BRT system not only utilizes specialized bus lanes, but also includes its own elevated network of roadways (China’s first elevated BRT network). As a result of its designated BRT highways, Xiamen’s buses can reach speeds of 60 km/hr.

Xiamen has also utilized its BRT system as to showcase its green efforts: 300 compressed natural gas (CNG) busses were purchased in March 2010 as part of a larger plan convert 40-50% of Xiamen’s bus fleet to CNG busses by 2015. Additionally, Xiamen is integrating renewable energy into its BRT stations as it launched China’s first solar powered BRT station in May 2010.

Despite the successes of Xiamen's BRT system, the city is continuing with plans to develop a network of public rail transportation. The city has announced that construction of the Xiamen Urban Rail Transit program will begin in 2011. Underground rail is planned for the city center and above surface stations outside Xiamen Island. The future of Xiamen's BRT is uncertain; it may continue to operate connected to light rail and metro networks, although there is an ongoing movement to convert the BRT to an LRT system. Irregardless of whether Xiamen's BRT system will serve as a bridge or supplement to a future MRT system, it has effectively garnered widespread public approval and utilization, and potentially laid the infrastructural groundwork for more expensive and advanced transportation systems.

Taichung's progress towards a BRT system

Taichung has recently taken steps to enhance its frequently maligned public bus system. While stations along Taichung’s busy thoroughfare Taichung Harbor Road (台中港路) do not have boarding platforms, many offer shelter, seating, and real time digital tracking of bus arrivals. Taichung is transitioning to electronic fare payment and is in the process of outfitting all its city busses with GPS, allowing potential riders to track bus locations on their computers and mobile phones.

In May 2009, Taichung launched the Taichung Traffic Jam (TTJ) bus service. The TTJ bus features seven new express lines (some mirroring Taichung's future planned MRT lines) that stop at key areas of the city. Through its interconnected route network, exclusive use of automated pay-cards, and express routes, the TTJ busses are a positive attempt to increase the efficiency of Taichung's bus system. Furthermore, all rides on the TTJ busses were free for the first six months of operation, a measure aimed at increasing Taichung citizens' ridership.

The TTJ busses are a good, but small, step towards creating an efficient BRT system in Taichung. Taichung’s bus system still lacks many hallmarks of a quality BRT network such as widespread usage of special bus lanes and prepaid boarding. Perhaps equally important to upgrading its busses, stations and routes is the need to change the negative perception of the bus system in Taichung. When speaking to many people in Taichung about the busses, reactions range from puzzlement to disdain. Most people conclude that a scooter or car is essential to life. Without first working to increase public awareness and usage of public transportation options, Taichung could face problems akin to Kaohsiung City's once its MRT comes online later this decade.

Future Outlook

I believe that a comprehensive BRT system in Taichung is a good fit as its low upfront investment cost presents a good risk/reward ratio to Taichung's City government. While the soaring BRT-exclusive highways of Xiamen aren't likely to materialize in Taichung, measured steps to upgrade the city's busses, stations, lanes, and marketing of its BRT system are pragmatic and cost-effective options to stimulate increased ridership. Paramount among Taichung's BRT challenges is to reverse the negative image of Taichung's bus system. GPS tracking and free express busses are a good beginning. Taichung still needs more exclusive bus lanes and enclosed stations with prepayment, giving its bus system a more sophisticated and integrated feel.

Although the public perception of Taichung's public transportation system is largely negative, the city's parallels to Curitiba offer room for optimism. Both cities underwent rapid urbanization and expansion which necessitated a re-think regarding their urban planning models. Both Taichung and Curitiba coveted underground metro systems, but a lack of funding prevented them from rapidly developing a subterranean public transit option. As of 2004, Taichung's high levels of private car ownership (276 vehicles/1000 people) were still less than Curitiba's rate (333 vehicles/1000 people), indicating that public and private transportation options can co-exist.

When examining successful BRT systems worldwide, it seems that no city's public transportation system is complete (in the opinion of its planners) without some form of public rail transportation. It easy to get lost in a debate over which form of public transportation is best while small, practical changes are delayed. In this respect, Taichung is ahead of the curve. The city has already begun construction on its long-awaited MRT system and can now focus on developing a low-cost BRT network to supplement it. Similarly to Taipei, Taichung can utilize its BRT system to connect areas of the city that will lack access to its new MRT. The years between now and the planned opening of the Taichung MRT mid-decade present Taichung City with an important opportunity to lay the groundwork for a culture of public transportation usage at minimal cost and risk. If the city fails to act however, Taichung's citizens may continue to prefer scooter over subway.